Correlations for Vapor Pressure of Crude Oil Measured by Expansion Method VPCRx Accurate measurement and prediction of crude oil and natural gas liquid NGL products vapor pressure are important for safe storage and transportation, custody transfer, minimizing vaporization losses and environmental protection. In addition to the standard procedures for their measurements, there are rigorous and shortcut methods for their estimation and conversion.
There are near-term and obvious implications for oil markets and global economies.
InSheikh Yamani, former oil minister of Saudi Arabia, gave an interview in which he said: Oil will be left in the ground. The Stone Age came to an end, not because we had a lack of stones, and the oil age will come to an end not because we have a lack of oil.
This followed strenuous lobbying efforts by some of largest oil producing non-OPEC nations in the weeks leading up to the meeting. This group even went so far as to make the highly unusual offer of agreeing Prediction for oil gas 2015 their own production cuts.
The ramifications of this decision across the globe, not just in energy markets, but politically, are already having consequences for the global landscape.
The primary role of OPEC has been to support price stability. In acting as global swing producer, OPEC relied has heavily on Saudi Arabia, which can influence global prices by increasing or decreasing production to expand or reduce available global supply.
Saudi Arabia can do this not only because it controls an enormous portion of global reserves and production capacity, but does so with crude oil that is stunningly inexpensive to produce compared to the current global market.
This strategy would undermine the economic viability of a meaningful amount of global production. The theory assumes that this can be done in some kind of orderly bring-down of prices where the Saudis can find an ideal price below the production cost of this marginal oil production but still high enough to maintain significant profits for the Kingdom while this market correction plays out.
The assumption is that following the correction there will be a return to business as usual along with higher prices, but with Saudi Arabia commanding a relatively larger share of that market.
Saudi Arabia has embarked on an absolute quest for dominant market share in the global oil market. The near-term cost of grabbing that market share is immense, with the Saudis sacrificing potentially hundreds of billions of dollars if low prices persist.
In a world of endless consumption, this risk would be hard to justify merely in exchange for a temporary expansion of global market share — the current lost revenue would take years to recover with a marginally higher share of global supply.
But in a world where a producer sees the end of its market on the horizon, then every barrel sold at a profit is more valuable than a barrel that will never be sold. Current Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi had this to say about production cuts in late December: Saudi Arabia is seeing a new and massively changing energy landscape.
All of these threats to oil use are occurring against a backdrop where the acceleration of costs-effective alternative technologies expands the potential of viable alternatives to our current fossil fuel-based energy economy.
Saudi Arabia has come to the stark realization, as Yamani foretold, that it is a race to produce, regardless of price, so that it will not be leaving its oil in the ground.
The Kingdom has effectively open the valve on the carbon asset bubble and jumped to be the first to start the race to the end of the age of hydrocarbons by playing its one great advantage — a cost of production so low that it can sell its crude faster and hoping not to find itself at the end of the age of oil holding vast worthless unburnable reserves.
Collateral Fallout Much has been made of the catastrophic economic consequences to Russia, Iran, Venezuela and other oil exporting nations caused by these low oil prices, as well as, the profound damage to their economies and impending political turmoil.
Meanwhile in the U. Less well documented is the impact on access to capital for drilling operations and given the disastrous economics of North American coal, perhaps fossil fuel extraction broadly. Drilling for oil requires huge amounts of capital with a significant appetite for risk, as both production uncertainty and market volatility can undermine the value of investments.
In the current production boom, market volatility was wildly underpriced. When combined with pent up appetite for yield due to persistently low interest rates, capital, including tremendous amounts of high-yield debt, has flooded into oil companies.
As low crude prices persist there will be substantial losses by investors. This will cause volatility in crude oil markets to be re-priced, and access to low cost capital will disappear for all but a select group of oil production investments. OPEC will continue to meet and hold itself out as a cartel that can control the oil markets, but that time has passed.
The cartel was dependent upon Saudi Arabia to use its outsized swing position to control spare capacity in the market. With the Saudis no longer interested in that role, the influence of the cartel is gone. It would be no surprise at all to see Saudi Arabia actually increase production though how much additional output is readily available is unclear as prices stabilize and begin to climb later this year because excess capacity will be shed from the market and global economic growth will accelerate.
The value of effectively every asset class on Earth is influenced by the assumption that a fossil fuel-based economy will persist for so long that any potential for future change to asset values can be ignored.Energy Information Administration - EIA EIA raises Brent crude oil price forecast by $7 per barrel in but expects prices to gradually decline through HGL coal consumption/demand daily electricity industrial + liquid fuels natural gas oil.
Energy Information Administration - EIA - Official Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government. 1 Paper Unconventional Data-Driven Methodologies Forecast Performance In Unconventional Oil and Gas Reservoirs Keith R.
Holdaway, Louis Fabbi, and Dan Lozie, SAS Institute Inc. Oil price forecast for , , and Crude oil predictions and projections. Price trend by month. Detailed forecast table. Crude oil Brent price forecast for next months and years. The price is in US Dollar per 1 oil barrell.
Oil prices will average $72/b in , lower than in Greater U.S.
supply may force OPEC to cut back. By , the price will be $93 a barrel. The Engineering Science of Oil Pipelines From the Keystone XL pipeline project to spills and leaks in existing lines, pipelines are in the news.